• Posted on March 28, 2024
• Unique Submission Team

Assignment Sample on EBUS534 Planning for Risk, Uncertainty and Complexity

Introduction

In order to meet out the traveller’s requirements for accessibility and capacity at the rail station of Coventry which is one among the fastest growing stations situated outer area of London, an amount of £82 million has been allotted for the purpose of redevelopment by Coventry city Council in association with Network Rail, Virgin trains, Friargrate Coventry, West Midland transports and stakeholders. This project has commenced in the year 2015 and to be competed in the year 2021 for the UK city of culture.  The redevelopment work to be carried out at the rail station is such as;

• Second footbridge to entire platform with canopies
• Second entrance building for the station, with step free access to platforms
• Multi-story car parking with the capacity of 633
• Bus terminus connectivity to station
• Road improvements that includes connecting the new road to Central six and ring road and creating additional capacity on  the road Warwick
• New bay platform towards enabling two trains / hour betwixt Coventry and Nueaton.

The project has been initiated and works are being carried on, though it faced few setbacks. Hence the scope is to reduce the cost and kept in control. According to risk register the risks has to be proceeded.

Question 1- Unlock Project Management Game

The three success factors are time, Cost and quality.

Stake holders Description	Prioritize
Virgin Trains	The Coventry City  council has to pay the amount to Virgin Trains for the loss encountered when parking 385 spaces closed in due time of constructing the new-multi-storey 633 car parking with 196 spaces in the road of west minister.  This will provide a chance product the income towards reducing the cot risk. Hence the cabinet is asked to grant approval as well as reimbursing the Virgin Train for the revenue loss- High priority
West midland transports	Yet to de-risk the projects, western link road which connects the ring road is eliminated from the scheme. It removes the possible risk of objections to plan the applications from main stakeholders, mandatory PO process as well as remarkable claim for compensation that would be available for the budget from outside. This would be completed in future. – Low -priority
Friargate Coventry	Bus interchange – there are plans to cut out the costs for internal fit –out scaling. In smaller scale itself the capacity of the buses are able to serve interchange also to decrease the operational expenses of overheads – Medium Priority

According to the priority, the stakeholders work has to be completed to attain the success factors of time, Cost and Quality.

Major risks are;

• Extra resources for PM – project management is needed which increases the cost of the resources.
• Values of the contract are expected to be higher lightly because of the limited timescales to delivery
• Some of the savings are being factored into recent cost estimation that reflects the reduction in overhead of contractor due to the shortening or timescale in construction.

The programme changes could be lodged within the amount of £82m and no more seeking of funds. The above are considered as risk in the project.

Stake holder’s satisfaction

The stakeholders could be internal else external, and they may include, suppliers, staffs and local community members. This analysis offers supportful mechanism to decide the initiative support and actions to raise the cooperation. The interest and Power are the metrics to make the critical factor as success. Obstacle to the project success is cost of construction under this project, which gives inflation of pressure risk influence by the rail sector. The cost review has to be done to identify the elements that increases the construction cost. (Hallam, 2018)

I have prioritized the factors for success is quality.  Trade-off is referred as decision made on situation which involves in losing quality, quantity else property in returning for gaining aspects. It means when one factor is increases means other factor should decrease. For example, here if we want to reduce the cost, we need to keep pending of one of the works which makes delay in completion. Trade-off reflects in cost related with the action in oppose to anticipated reward. (Sidura Sidarus, 2019)

No. We could not meet out all the project goals with stock holders. The main obstacle for the success of the project is Cost and time – schedule

Question 2 – Coventry rail station case study

Risk Breakdown Structure – RBS

The figure shows the general breakdown structure of projects.   There are four kinds of risks existing in any projects such as technical, external, organizational and Managerial. In this I am relating these risks in to risk register.

Risk Id	Risk title		Risk Descriptions	Probability	Impact		Index
Technical
REF001	New Equipment Fails	New equipment (e.g. cable joints) fails when commissioning the new system		2		3	6
REF009	Retail Telecoms	Lack of capacity of existing retail telecoms control centre to accommodate additional requirements at proposed new and altered stations		2		2	4
External
REF005	Estimating uncertainty	There is uncertainty in the rates/quantities included in the base cost		3		4	12
REF018	Weather	Exceptionally adverse weather occurs (while constructing)		2		3	6
REF019	Overhead Electrification Equipment (OHLE) records	Additional cost and programme delay.		3		3	9
Organizational
REF002	Specialist staff	Specialist staff required to undertake the works may be unavailable		3		4	12
REF015	SSSI	Working in close proximity to a site of special scientific interest (e.g. Sand eels must not be disturbed)		1		1	1
REF031	3rd part objections	3rd party objections to scheme		2		1	2
REF038	Market conditions	An unknown future legislation change on design features.		3		2	6
REF044	Spec change	Change of project spec while project is ongoing		3		4	12
Managerial
REF033	Estimating uncertainty	Uncertainty of p-way quantities and rates		5		2	10
REF035	Estimating uncertainty	Uncertainty of platform works quantities and rates		4		1	4
REF039	Market conditions	Prevailing market conditions. Materials prices are different from expected.		4		3	12
REF042	Official complaints	Neighbors or interest groups raising issues about noise or inconvenience		3		2	6
REF048	Political opposition or negative press	Political pressure may force objectives to be cancelled or altered		2		3	6
REF049	Materials shortage	Supply chain disruptions means materials do not arrive		2		4	8

 These are the possible risks in Coventry rail station projects.  Now let us draw the likelihood- Impact Matrix for the risk associated with RBS.

Let us assign the values to the impact are as 5- Extreme; 4 – Major; 3 Moderate; 2 Minor; 1 trivial

Similarly for Likelihood values are very unlikely – 5; Likely – 4; Possible – 3; unlikely – 2; very unlikely -1

Likelihood		Impact
		Trivial 1	Minor 2	Moderate 3	Major 4	Extreme 5
	Very likely 5	Moderate	Extreme	Unspecified	Unspecified	Unspecified
	Likely 4	Moderate	Major	Extreme	Unspecified	Unspecified
	Possible3	Trivial	Moderate	Major	Extreme	Unspecified
	Unlikely 2	Trivial	Moderate	Moderate	Major	Extreme
	Very unlikely 1	Trivial	Trivial	Trivial	Moderate	Moderate

Most of the RBS are fall under the category of major and moderate. Extreme cases are very low. Hence the risk is very much acceptable it means it is solvable. For the risks to be severe, in this, the plan has to be re-designing for meeting out the unexpectancy. The risks which are major need some attention. Risks are having Moderate need little attention and which are trivial needs very less effort. The unspecified are the risks which are not in our RBS structure.

Question 3

Composite risk index (EuroControl, 2019) this is mainly focuses on the Safety of the systems and the human beings with respect to the weights, severity and occurrence. It is referred as human perception of risk.

Composite Risk Index components

The success factors in the project are given in the risk measures in the risk register such as Schedule, Cost and Objectives.

First Success factor Schedule:

Risk ID	Probability	Impact	Index
REF001	2	3	6
REF002	3	4	12
REF004	4	2	8
REF011	3	2	6
REF016	3	2	6
REF018	2	3	6
REF024	3	4	12
REF026	2	4	8
REF028	2	2	4
REF029	3	2	6
REF030	2	3	6
REF040	2	4	8
REF041	2	3	6
REF042	2	3	6
REF044	3	4	12
REF045	3	2	6
REF047	4	2	8
REF049	2	4	8
REF050	1	3	3

The above table shows the likelihood, impact and CRI scores. In this the ID numbers 02, 24, 44 are belongs to extreme conditions according to our matrix. The Id numbers that influence schedule or time of the project is 04, 26,40,47,49 are under major conditions, and the ID numbers 01, 11, 16,29,30,45 are belongs to moderate and the remaining are trivial category. The attention is given according to the scores.

Second Success factor Cost

Risk ID	Probability	Impact	Index
REF005	3	4	12
REF006	1	3	3
REF007	5	2	10
REF008	5	1	5
REF009	2	2	4
REF010	3	3	9
REF011	3	2	6
REF012	2	1	2
REF013	2	1	2
REF014	2	1	2
REF015	1	1	1
REF016	3	2	6
REF017	2	1	2
REF019	3	3	9
REF020	2	2	4
REF021	4	3	12
REF022	5	2	10
REF023	4	2	8
REF024	3	4	12
REF025	2	2	4
REF026	2	4	8
REF027	1	2	2
REF028	2	2	4
REF029	3	2	6
REF030	2	3	6
REF031	2	1	2
REF032	5	1	5
REF033	5	2	10
REF034	4	2	8
REF035	4	1	4
REF036	4	2	8
REF037	5	2	10
REF038	3	2	6
REF039	4	3	12
REF043	3	2	6
REF044	3	4	12
REF045	3	2	6
REF046	2	2	4
REF047	4	2	8

The above table shows the likelihood, impact and CRI scores of Cost factors. In this the ID numbers 05, 07, 10, 21,22,24,33, 37, 39, 43 are belongs to extreme conditions according to our matrix. The Id numbers that influence cost direct or indirect of the project is 11,16,23,26,29,30,34,36,38,43,45,47 are under major conditions, and the ID numbers 08, 09, 20,25,28,32,35,46 are belongs to moderate and the remaining are trivial category. The attention is given according to the scores.

 

Third Success factor Objectives

Risk ID	Probability	Impact	Index
REF003	2	4	8
REF044	3	4	12
REF048	2	3	6

 

The above table shows the likelihood, impact and CRI scores of Objective factors. In this the ID number 44 is belongs to extreme conditions according to our matrix. The Id number that influence Objective or scope of the project is 3 and 48 are under major conditions. Here there is no factor of low risk.

Now comparing the success factor of Cost, schedule and time of the projects from the figure we could see clearly that cost factor has more influence than schedule and objective.  Here the objective reflects the quality and Schedule refers to time and the Cost refers to the cost of the project. (Saleh Alawi Ahmad, 2013)

Comparison of three success factors

As we know the ID numbers we can easily point out where the factors influences in the project.  Most of the risks are associated with cost and schedule. If these two are managed, then, third success factor of quality will be attained automatically.

Cost – is identified at most of the risk. Because cost involves in repairing, replacing, additional shift, experts, consultants, modification of plan, material cost, ground works, unexpected market growth etc are affects and in turn makes the delay and affects the quality. The three responses are given as;

• Estimating Uncertainty
• Grounding works
• Material cost with respect to market risk

These three risks are highly influencing in project, due to uncertainties like rate, quantity, p-way quantities, signaling, market conditions etc. for this we need to alter the plan according to that to face the risk. These risks will be managed by taking additional care if need plan may be altered.

Question 4

The Values of mean for probability, Impact and CRI in the risk register are calculated as follows:

Mean value is calculated by taking the average values of probability, impact and CRI.

Risk ID	Probability	Impact	CR Index xi	(xi-x)2
REF001	2	3	6	0.2916
REF002	3	4	12	29.8116
REF003	2	4	8	2.1316
REF004	4	2	8	2.1316
REF005	3	4	12	29.8116
REF006	1	3	3	12.5316
REF007	5	2	10	11.9716
REF008	5	1	5	2.3716
REF009	2	2	4	6.4516
REF010	3	3	9	6.0516
REF011	3	2	6	0.2916
REF012	2	1	2	20.6116
REF013	2	1	2	20.6116
REF014	2	1	2	20.6116
REF015	1	1	1	30.6916
REF016	3	2	6	0.2916
REF017	2	1	2	20.6116
REF018	2	3	6	0.2916
REF019	3	3	9	6.0516
REF020	2	2	4	6.4516
REF021	4	3	12	29.8116
REF022	5	2	10	11.9716
REF023	4	2	8	2.1316
REF024	3	4	12	29.8116
REF025	2	2	4	6.4516
REF026	2	4	8	2.1316
REF027	1	2	2	20.6116
REF028	2	2	4	6.4516
REF029	3	2	6	0.2916
REF030	2	3	6	0.2916
REF031	2	1	2	20.6116
REF032	5	1	5	2.3716
REF033	5	2	10	11.9716
REF034	4	2	8	2.1316
REF035	4	1	4	6.4516
REF036	4	2	8	2.1316
REF037	5	2	10	11.9716
REF038	3	2	6	0.2916
REF039	4	3	12	29.8116
REF040	2	4	8	2.1316
REF041	2	3	6	0.2916
REF042	2	3	6	0.2916
REF043	3	2	6	0.2916
REF044	3	4	12	29.8116
REF045	3	2	6	0.2916
REF046	2	2	4	6.4516
REF047	4	2	8	2.1316
REF048	2	3	6	0.2916
REF049	2	4	8	2.1316
REF050	1	3	3	12.5316
Total	142	119	327	484.42

Mean – Probability = 142/50= 2.84

Mean – Impact = 119/50= 2.38

Mean – CRI Score = 327 /50= 6.54

Coefficient of variation CV of CRI = standard deviation / Mean = σ/ µ

Standard deviation =

Standard = [484.32/ (50-1)]^1/2 = 3.14

Coefficient of variation = σ/ µ = 3.14 / 6.54 = 0.48 *100= 48%

The CRI – Mean is 6.54 and CV is 0.48

Percentage CV = 48 %

The CV must be used while comparing the variation of experiments by utilizing various metrics. (S.L.Taylor, 2018) at very low values of CV it gives  more precision value of estimate.

Histogram for CRI

The ranges may be by 2

Hence

Intervals	Frequency
1-2	7
3 – 4	8
5 – 6	14
7-8	9
9-10	6
11-12	6

Histogram data of CRI (Fun, 2021)

The ranges of 5-6 have the frequency of 14 times and 7-8 are having the values of 9 times It shows that moderate risks are more in this project. Severity otherwise extreme and major risks are equal in numbers and low level risks are also having the occurrences of 8 and very low level are 7 times. Hence if we concentrate on moderate level of risks, most of the risk will be reduced and we can obtain quality results.

Question 5

Decision tree for recruitment process

REF002 – Specialist Staff – Required to undertake the works may be unavailable- Specialist staff may be required and they are booked in advance

£110,000

Labour                                     70 % chance

Consulting company

£180,000

Special staff recruitment- Decision tree

According to the decision tree; If we want to recruit special staffs for the projects, we need to book them in prior, There is a chance for 70 % towards the need of special staffs. It costs about £110,000.

In case if we don’t recruiting the special staffs, then special recruitment ends and advice from consulting company is needed which charges for the company is £180,000.   My recommendation is to recruit the special staffs to the project. This process makes the cost less at the same time we could have manpower as experts and labors which would leads to complete the works in time.

 Question 5

Site Clearance                                    vegetation                                          Pay for removal

Safety case

Safety issues

Market Conditions

Prevailing                                                                                                                Unexpected

Three risks and its events

Here I have taken three IDs such as REF 012, 016, 039 which gives the

• REF 012- Site clearance
• REF 016- safety case
• REF 039 – Market conditions.

Site clearance indicates the removal of vegetation and we need to pay for it hence the decision is pay for the removal which indicates the cost factor

Safety case – It deals with the issues associated with the safety case approvals. For this, cost involves in changing design must satisfy the department of transport, It involves in cost as well as schedule,  Because approval needs time and which in turn makes  delay hence  cost and schedule is to be considered (Chang, et al., 2018)

Market conditions – It is prevailing market situations, material prices are difference from expected which turn leads to make attention to costs.

In a single decision tree the concepts and solutions for three risk IDs are given

Question 6

Risk ID REF001

Task A and task B must be finished prior to Task C.  A and B can go in parallel. (Hajifathalian, et al., 2016)

Task A – 30 % chance – 3 weeks

30 % chance – 4 weeks

40 % chance – 5 weeks

Task B – 50 % chance – 3 weeks

50 % chance – 4 weeks

Task C – 40 % chance – 6 weeks

60 % chance – 9 weeks

Activity	Optimistic duration	Most likely duration	Pessimistic duration	Mean	Te = (to+4 tm+ tp) / 6	Variance σ2	SD = √ σ2
A	3	4	5	4	4	0.1	0.316
B	3	4	0	2.3	3.2	0.25	0.5
C	6	9	0	5	7	1	1

 

Since it is similar to PERT we calculated the mean And SD using this formula.

te= Expected time  = (to+4 tm+ tp) / 6

The duration of time are given in terms of days.

Variance σ² = [ (tp – to) / 6 ] ²

Standard Deviation = √ σ²

According to the value of mean and standard deviation the completion time of the task A is lesser than task B.  Task C has take more time to complete the project.

Mante carlo simulations by utilizing 100 Iterations to complete the activity.

From the random number generation: task A = Mean = 512/10 = 51.2 and SD = 27.3 (Georgios K. Koulinas *, 2020)

task B = Mean = 534/10 = 53.4 ; SD = 18.9

task C= Mean = 512/10 = 51.2;  SD = 21.3

The probability   to finish 12 week using  z- table is =  there are 62 % probability to complete the project

The probability   to finish 13 week using z- table is =there is a probability of 78 % completing the project

Question 7

From the risk register I am selecting the risk ID REF001 – New Equipment Fails – New equipment (e.g. cable joints) fails when commissioning the new system- Repair time will impact on commissioning – Schedule – Probability is 2 and the impact is 3.

Risk monitoring and Controlling

In new equipment failure system, we could identify it at the time of commissioning a new system. If we find it on the time of commissioning means, this will leads to time delay in completing the projects. Because   the new equipments has to be checked prior to commissioning.. Mostly the new equipment failure would be not in major portion just like Cable joints weak and some of the finishing parts may be not find.  These are the risks which are given low priority. Risk monitoring is the process of dealing with detailed as well as tracking the recognized risks and monitoring the risks of residual. It is utilized to identify the new risks also that may arise unexpectedly. This risk monitoring and controlling involves in risk assessment in urgency, Re assessment of risk, and identification of risk, monitoring and controlling process. (Anonymous, 2019)

The impact of this risk is affecting the time schedule and will make delay in commissioning. Hence tracking and  monitoring the risk using latest technology of AGILOE method we would prefer. This process is important in every task.  Always keep on focus on the suppliers and manufacturers to make note of the new equipments.

I would implement the system using latest technology of project and risk management system. Prior monitoring of all the equipments from the manufacturing site and to the delivery site will be taken care by special crew or software. In case any delay occurs due to new equipments, agreement has to be made in prior that, the responsibility must be taken care by the respective project team and the supplier. Our aim is to provide the quality and good conditioned equipment to complete the project s in time with no delay. (Stephen D. Gantz, 2016). I would follow the guidelines of NIST. Depends on the level of risk , assumptions, constraints,  tolerance level and   practices of monitoring has to be followed. This process must be consider the perspectives of organizations, and coordinating the practices of monitoring to support the entire risk of management aims and possible duplication of established activities of monitoring.

 Personal Reflections

This assignment is about the risk assessment, planning and uncertainty of   redesign of Coventry rail station project.  This assignment, makes me to learn how to handle risk register, how to prepare the matrix of likelihood, and impact to analyze priorities of the risk involved in the project. . There are  risks which occurs unexpectedly and technical issues  etc which would affect the success factors of Cost, Time and quality.  I learned to analyze the risk breakdown structure and to draw the decision tree diagram for easy understanding of the risk and the solution. Also I have learned to calculate the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and its relation in the project analysis.  I do aware to do the simulation in Monte carlo  to find the probability of project completion using random number generation and Z – table. I understand the concepts of risk monitoring and controlling process in handling specified risk.

References

Anonymous, 2019. Risk Monitoring and Control. PROJECT MANAGEMENT KNOWLEDGE, Volume 6, pp. 1-10.

Chang, H.-K., Yu, W.-D. & Cheng, S.-T., 2018. A new project scheduling method based on activity risk duration and systems simulation. Technol. 2, Volume 33, pp. 1-16.

EuroControl, 2019. Composite Risk Index (CRI) – methodology. Performance Monitoring and Reporting , Volume 8, pp. 1-16.

Fun, M., 2021. Make a Bar Graph, Line Graph, Pie Chart, Dot Plot or Histogram, then Print or Save., s.l.: https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/data-graph.php.

Georgios K. Koulinas *, A. S. X. T. T. T. a. D. E. K., 2020. Schedule Delay Risk Analysis in Construction Projects with a Simulation-Based Expert System. Buildings, 10(134), pp. 1-19.

Hajifathalian, K. et al., 2016. Oops Simulation: Cost-Benefits Trade-Off Analysis of Reliable Planning for Construction Activities.. Constr. Eng. Manag., 2016(142), pp. 1-8.

Hallam, K., 2018. Big changes as cost of Coventry station masterplan spirals, s.l.: https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/coventry-train-railway-station-masterplan-14897214.

S.L.Taylor, M. P. W. R. R., 2018. Relationship between mean yield, coefficient of variation, mean square error, and plot size in wheat field experiments. Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis , 30(9-10), pp. 1439-1447.

Saleh Alawi Ahmad, U. H. I. M. A. F. L. M. A., 2013. International Journal of Management (IJM), ISSN 0976 – 6502(Print), ISSN 0976 – 6510(Online), Volume 4, Issue 5, September – October (2013) 168 EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS AFFECTING TIME AND COST OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN YEMEN. International Journal of Management (IJM), 4(5), pp. 168-178.

Sidura Sidarus, S. P. C., 2019. Cost-benefit trade-offs in decision-making and learning. PLOS- computational Biology, 15(9), pp. 1-21.

Stephen D. Gantz, D. R. P., 2016. Risk Monitoring. Elsevier, Volume 8, pp. 1-15.

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